Summary

The article considers fertility rate dynamics in the former Soviet Union countries, analyzes crude birth rate and total fertility rate in 1990-2015, the distribution of births by birth order, total fertility rate by birth order, indicators of average birth order, average maternal age at child birth, the share of out-of-wedlock births. Research studies of reproductive behavior in the former Soviet Union states has been reviewed.

The total fertility rate data for 1990-2015 are available on statistical agencies websites of all post-Soviet states, except Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (Kyrgyzstan data are unavailable for the periods of  1990-1999 and 2001-2004).

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan featured the highest TFR value in 2015, 28.1‰ and 27.4‰ respectively. On the other hand, Estonia (10,6‰), Ukraine (10.7‰), Lithuania (10,8‰), Moldova (10,9‰) and Latvia (11,1‰) featured the lowest rate. Compared to 1990 the total fertility rate has diminished in almost all post-Soviet states, except Kazakhstan (22,2‰ in 1990 and to 22.7‰ in 2015).

If in the 1990s and early 2000s, trends in the total fertility rate changes in the post-Soviet countries were similar (with different scale of indicator change), in recent years its dynamics has showed  markedly different changes across these countries.

However, the CBR depends on population age and sex structure, which affects its dynamics and cross-country comparisons.

Therefore TFR is more acceptable for the research analysis. This indicator is also available for all post-Soviet states, except Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, however, with the exclusion of some years  between 1990 and 2015. For example, for Georgia there is no 1991-1994 data, for Kazakhstan – 1990-1998, and Tajikistan - 2012-2015.

For those countries, in which above 2015 statistics is available, Kyrgyzstan featured the highest rate  (3,19), and Moldova - the lowest (1,30).

The TFR was lower in 2015 than in 1990 in all post-Soviet countries except Georgia, in which, after a substantial decline, the indicator has showed a significant increase in 2014 and 2015, reaching, respectively, 2.19 and 2.30, or higher value than in 1990

As in case of CBR, a downward trend of the total fertility rate should be noted in all countries of the former Soviet Union in the 1990s, and the differences in this indicator dynamics in the 2000s.

The total fertility rate by birth order can be calculated only for those countries and for time periods in which the data on the distribution of births by birth order is available for the female age groups. As far as the above countries are concerned no information is available on the websites of statistical agencies in Armenia and Georgia, and Azerbaijan has it only for the last year.

Among the former Soviet Union states, for which there is relevant information, in 2015 the highest total fertility rate for the second births was in Kyrgyzstan (0.864) and Kazakhstan (0.806) and the lowest - in Moldova (0.467) and Ukraine (to 0.506).

Trends in total fertility rate by third births are similar to those mentioned for the second births. It declined from 0.246 in 1990 to 0.114 in 1997 in Latvia, from 0.333 in 1990 to 0.131 in 2002 in Moldova, in Estonia – from 0.266 in 1990 to 0.145 in 1999.

Unlike the total fertility rate, the average birth order in 2015 was higher than in 1990 in all former Soviet Union countries, in which the data for its calculation are available for both years: in Belarus – 1.64 in 1990 and 1.76 in 2015 (average birth order is calculated on the basis of total fertility rates by birth order), in Latvia -1.77 and 1.81 respectively, in Estonia - 1.82 and 1.85. In Azerbaijan and Moldova, the average birth order in 2015 was lower than in 1990.

As far as the countries reviewed are concerned, significantly higher value of average birth order in 2015 was in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and in the other countries it varied from 1.70 in Ukraine to 1.85 in Estonia.

The average age of mother at child birth is another generalized characteristics of the age specific fertility model. As a rule, official statistical websites provide it with respect to the first child. Average age of mother at first birth has increased in Armenia (since 2004), Belarus (since 2002), Latvia (1994), Lithuania (1995) Estonia (1995). By 2015, in Armenia it has increased by 2.0 years, in Belarus – 2.7 years, in Latvia – 4.5 years, in Lithuania - by 4.1 years, in Estonia - by 3.8 years (by 2014 and in 2015 the this indicator has decreased).

In Azerbaijan, after unstable dynamics of the average maternal age at first birth in recent years, it was decreased (from 24.4 in 2010 to 23.2 in 2014). Kyrgyzstan also featured this indicator decline (from 23.6 in 2010 to 23.1 in 2015). These two countries featured the lowest average maternal age at the first birth in 2015, while Latvia (27.0) and Lithuania (27.1) - the highest.

The highest share of children born out-of-wedlock (for the former Soviet Union countries, in which this information is available, i.e. for all except Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) was in Estonia (58.0%) in 2015. In 2015 approximately one third of children was born out of wedlock in Armenia (34.2%) and Georgia (32.4%). Moreover, in Georgia the share of such children is now significantly less than in 2000-2007, when it exceeded 40%, and in 2006 it was 54.4%. The lowest shares of such births were recorded in Belarus (13.8%), Kazakhstan (14.1%) and Azerbaijan (14.5%) in 2015. In Belarus and Kazakhstan compared to 2005, this index declined by more than 10%.